Day 24: The “What if I’m Wrong?” Test
Good decision-makers don’t just ask, “What if I’m right?” – they stress-test their thinking by asking, “What if I’m wrong?”
THINGS TO CONSIDER
KEY INSIGHT: The most dangerous bias isn’t pessimism – it’s unquestioned optimism. Great decision-makers aren’t the ones who are never wrong; they’re the ones who are wrong in recoverable ways. The “What if I’m wrong?” test isn’t about self-doubt – it’s about intelligent preparation.
PERSONAL REFLECTION: Think of a decision you’re highly confident about right now. If you discovered tomorrow that you were completely wrong, what would be the real cost? What would you wish you had done differently?
TODAY’S EXERCISE:
Apply the “What if I’m wrong?” test to one current decision:
• The Failure Autopsy: Imagine it’s one year later and your decision failed. What story would you tell about why?
• The Exit Strategy Test: How easily could you reverse course if needed?
• The Early Warning System: What would the first signs of trouble look like?