Day 13: Overconfidence and the “I Would Never Do That!” Fallacy

Day 1: The Real Cost of a Bad Decision

Day 2: You’re Not as Rational As You Think

Day 3: The Invisible Forces Driving Your Choices

Day 4: Why “Good Intentions” Aren’t Enough

Day 5: Behind Every Regret is a Decision

Day 6: The Myth of Experience: Smarter Doesn’t Mean Safer

Day 7: The Leadership Choice – Take Responsibility for Your Decisions

Day 8: System 1 Thinking: Fast, Intuitive, and Often Wrong

Day 9: System 2 Thinking: Slower, Smarter – but Lazy

Day 10: The Halo Effect, Anchoring, and the Trap of First Impressions

Day 11: How Confirmation Bias Shapes Your Reality

Day 12: Loss Aversion: Why You Stay in Bad Situations Too Long

The very belief that you’re the exception makes you the rule.

THINGS TO CONSIDER

KEY INSIGHT: The phrase “I would never do that” often comes right before doing exactly that. Overconfidence makes us feel like we’re immune to the psychological forces that affect everyone else, setting us up for the very mistakes we judge in others.

PERSONAL REFLECTION: Think of someone whose failure you’ve judged harshly. What circumstances, beliefs, or pressures might have made their choice seem reasonable to them? Where in your life might you be displaying similar overconfidence?

TODAY’S EXERCISE: Can you identify a decision you’re feeling very confident about? If so ask yourself: “What would have to be true for this to go badly?” Consider three specific ways your confidence might be overly confident and what you could do to test those assumptions.